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May 11, 2023
Wednesday trading closed, with Asian stocks continuing their downward trend. Economists say that the main reason for the decline in Asian share prices is that traders are waiting to release US inflation data, for which the banking sector is uncertain.
Last week, the Federal Reserve did an interest rate hike and released a forecast-beating jobs report. And after that, the Fed focuses on the consumer price index reading later in the day. CPI is considered a key decision-making role in the US policy meeting in June.
However, the movement that can be seen in the market at the moment is the movement around the negotiations which is more noise from the market-neutral. Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, and Taipei experienced all dropped actions.
Meanwhile, Wall Street also released data on a soft note leaving Singapore, Wellington, Manila, and Jakarta with slight gains. Tabs on development will continue following the Fed's rapid hikes since last year, and there is a possibility of further hikes.
Following the Asia Pacific Stock Exchange, which fell on Wednesday, economist opinion said that the US Federal Reserve's interest rate would be the influence.
These Asian stocks fell because investors were still unsure about the US inflation data and were still waiting to release the data and the Fed's policy directions.
New York FED President John Williams also said that the increase in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate would take longer to show a positive impact. It will start with the economy before inflation drops to 2%, and the Fed will choose the balance of the economy.
Williams said in his speech at the Economic Club on Wednesday: "Due to the delay in the effects of the Fed's interest rates and their effects, it will take time for action from the Federal Open Market Committee to restore balance to the economy and inflation to 2%,"
Regarding the part of the Fed's rate hikes, consumer prices rose 5% in March compared to a year ago. It leaves more than double the target rate of 2%. With this figure, economists expect year-over-year inflation to have stood flat at 5% in April, which they are waiting for.
As the Fed has aggressively hiked interest rates over the past year, the Fed is now more careful when it comes to determining additional rate hikes. US market fluctuations are now making a giant question mark whether market movements will affect the Fed's rate hike.
According to the Head of the Communication Department of Bank Indonesia (BI), Erwin Haryono, the strong optimism for consumer value is driven by increased consumer confidence in current economic conditions.
He said the more optimistic consumers are, the more transactions will be made. And this will affect the engine of economic movement so that the yield from this financial market will cause the US to take further steps to improve the economy and dollar prices.
The release of US economic data was also enough to make the Indonesian market worried. Many are now focusing on the movement of the Rupiah because, until Wednesday, the value of the Rupiah was recorded to have weakened 0.2% to IDR 14,725 per US Dollar.
This means that the Rupiah has weakened for two consecutive days against the US dollar. The signal for a period of an increase in interest rates, even though it is already at the terminal rate of 5% - 5.25%, is still there and has great potential.
Rupiah is still unable to strengthen up to 3 trading days. And some economists say that the risk of the Rupiah falling is still considerable before the release of US inflation data.
New York Fed President John Williams said the US Central Bank is too soon to stop raising interest rates. He assumed there would be further action. And while waiting for this Fed policy, coupled with the release of the CPI data, Asian Stocks experienced a dominant weakening.
Salma Team
Category News: Market News
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