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December 12, 2022
The US Fed is heading to raise interest rates shortly. This has just been called a certainty because some economists believe a 2023 recession will be short, shallow, or mild. JPMorgan's David Kelly also said that the interest rate is the solution to this economic challenge.
The US FED appears to bring in new interest rates. However, the FED and some economists said it would be severe, so this decision is still up for debate. Central Bankers said they would fight inflation ripple, one of the aggressive moves that could be carried out.
The half-point jump was what was expected and believed to be done. Tremendous demand in the US to bring consumer costs down with conditions worsened by surging food and energy costs is the background so that the FED decision could be the primary concern of the FED.
Oren Klachkin of Oxford Economist confirmed Sunday: "We think the stage is set for a (half-point) hike this month. The decision will be announced after a two-day meeting of the policy setting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Thursday,"
"The primary concern for the FED here is real wage growth. That doesn't necessarily mean it will keep hiking forever, but it does mean that the rate will increase for a little bit. It might stay elevated throughout the next year," said Martin Wurm of Moody's Analytics for AFP.
From this opinion, with a higher benchmark rate, borrowing funds for big-ticket purchases, including for cars and property, or even expanding businesses becomes more expensive. And the aggressive move from FED will remain robust during the campaign.
"The strong job market, rising wages, and the strong household balance of sheet are the most vital areas to support the demand," said economist James Knightley of ING. Monetary policy will likely have to remain tight for some time, and this is what makes expectations fall.
During this battle, the struggle led to the stock market index, which also gained ground. It's slowing down the rate hikes, and it may range from 4.25% to 4.5%. And then, this is a sign that there will be more hikes brought by FED soon.
The market needs to see a forecast for softer inflation but not deep inflation. It will be so weak if the FED brings in another revised policy. Until last Friday, the consumer goods index was expected to show a 7.3% year on year, down slightly from last month.
With this latest expectation data, US consumers say that the trading area is comfortable. The Federal Reserve is also required to adopt a more cautious approach. The goal is that inflation-linked debt can be delivered and still want price pressure in the coming year.
So far, from the data collection, it is stated that the FED is okay with it. The eased US Financial condition does not require to overtighten solution. Powell and other policymakers have also repeatedly said that the goal of the FED now is to fight a possible recession.
However, they are still quite optimistic that this recession can be overcome. Recession is not inevitable, even though the poll results show that the US economy is headed to a low level. Their option now is not to loosen up their financial condition.
FED has been keeping policy restrictive for some time. This is the only option, and this policy can bring the US out of recession a little. However, the FED is now ready to face a critical inflation report by bringing interest rates up by half points after the FED meeting.
Salma Team
Category News: Market News
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