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December 06, 2022
The faster inflation of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his two decades in power seems to be starting to ease for the first time. In the last 17 months, Turkey has experienced the worst economy with continuous increases, so expectations of a decrease in inflation.
Ahead of the Turkish elections in 2023, this country's economy can return to better and gradually develop. Keeping it elevated for some time is a central bank target. And the measures taken prove that Turkish stability is the most vital.
Data on Monday shows that consumer prices rose an annual increase of around 85% last month, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Meanwhile, it is down from a 24-year high of 85.5% in October, which means it is off to a good start for the country's economy.
The statistical effect of a high base in the last few months shows a firm score. Plus, cheap lending at the expense of the Lira reduces stability. The policies that came near the end of Erdogan's term were also seen as a stimulus for the Turkish Lira.
While inflation peaked later than the authorities initially expected, Erdoğan then gave an unconventional view for lower rates to ease prices. He said that if the central bank cuts its benchmark into single digits, the target key interest rate is around 9%.
"We cut the rates to single digits, and this will continue as such. Don't worry, and inflation will also come down," Erdogan said last week when discussing the fate of the Turkish economy. Core inflation with pressure to increase the minimum wage in December.
Meanwhile, the 17 economists forecast that monthly inflation will average 3.1%, with projections ranging between 1.9% and 3.82%. The Turkish Statistical institute will announce November's consumer price index tomorrow, but it is believed it will drop for the first time.
Meanwhile, Turkey's economy has just been announced to have expanded by 3.9% in the third quarter from a year ago. Growth slowed from the previous quarter, but the global slowdown put a drag on exports.
The tourism sector is still the most potent domain, and the percentage is also increasing. Economists expect full-year growth of 5%, and in line with this forecast, growth to slow further in Q4.
This target is also related to the outlook for 2023, which still needs to be clarified. National elections should occur by July, but Erdogan's economic policies still need to be revised.
However, the focus is now on the Central Bank of Turkey. It was stated that the momentum of the Central Bank to deliver another outsized interest rate cut amid soaring prices could have been a lot better decision.
At the moment like today, when the Turkish Central Bank ended its cutting cycle rate with the reduction to 9%, this is a starting momentum. Regulators also regret Erdoğan's decision in the economic sector. Authority expects to bring firm policies to developing economies.
However, a savior came to the Turkish economy, namely Saudi Arabia. Turkey's government is trying to secure new foreign exchange inflows from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. And the condition of Turkey's economy may be able to surrender entirely.
Saudi Arabia said that there is a possibility that they will hand over a $5 billion deposit to Turkey. This is a step to accelerate the handling of issues faced by Turkish officials. Now it's in the final stage, and Saudi Arabia is most likely to agree to the deposit.
Analysts say that the current moment is tough for the Turkish Lira. It is true that currently, the Turkish economy is starting to increase again with falling inflation. However, the Turkish government is still relying on assistance from investors.
Salma Team
Category News: Market News
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